SMRs could replace 450 GW of coal power by 2050, says NEA
Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) could replace up to 450 GW of coal-fired capacity worldwide by 2050 — more than today’s entire operating nuclear fleet — according to a new report by the Paris-based OECD Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA).
The study, SMRs for Replacing Coal: Opportunities and Challenges (NEA), sees an immediate global replacement potential of 143 GW by 2035, rising to 238 GW by 2040 and a further 68 GW beyond 2040. About three-quarters of this potential could be tapped before 2040.
SMRs could replace 450 GW of coal power by 2050, cutting emissions while reusing existing coal plant infrastructure
The near-term market is 65% in North America (mainly the US), with Europe at 16% and Asia 12%. After 2040, demand is expected to shift towards Asia and Eastern Europe as new nuclear nations enter the market.
Coal-to-nuclear conversion offers deep cuts in CO₂ and air pollution, reuse of existing grid, cooling and site permits, and job preservation in coal communities. Repurposing old coal sites can speed up SMR deployment compared to building on greenfield locations.
But hurdles remain: high upfront costs, regulatory uncertainty, siting limits and reluctance from utilities to move first without policy incentives, risk-sharing frameworks or government support. The NEA says public-private partnerships, clear regulations, early community engagement and tailored financing models will be essential.
Coal-to-nuclear conversion offers deep cuts in CO₂ and air pollution, reuse of existing grid, cooling and site permits, and job preservation in coal communities
With 2,400 GW of coal still operating globally, even partial replacement by SMRs could significantly advance emission reduction goals. The report warns the pre-2040 window is crucial: delaying could mean losing one of the most scalable decarbonisation opportunities.
Even partial replacement by SMRs could significantly advance emission reduction goals
