World Energy Outlook 2024: The IEA predicts continued nuclear growth until 2050
The International Energy Agency (IEA) presented its World Energy Outlook 2024 (WEO) report, highlighting that global nuclear generating capacity is expected to increase from 416 GWe in 2023 to 647 GWe by 2050, in a scenario based on current energy policies.
According to the WEO report, nuclear generating capacity is expected to increase from 416 GWe to 647 GWe by 2050
Despite geopolitical tensions, an energy market with greater availability of fuels and technologies is anticipated. According to the IEA report, low-emission energy sources are expected to generate more than half of the world's electricity before 2030. However, demand for fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas) is projected to peak before the end of the decade. However, the IEA warns that the world remains far from meeting its net-zero emission goals.
Scenarios of the report
The report outlines three potential scenarios for the future of global energy:
- Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS): Based on current policies, it predicts that clean energy will surpass fossil fuels before 2030, with natural gas replacing coal as the second most important fuel.
- Announced Pledges Scenario (APS): Assumes all governmental climate goals are met on time, resulting in a quicker transition to clean energy and a significant increase in renewables.
- Net Zero Emissions (NZE) for 2050: Proposes necessary actions to limit global warming to 1.5°C, with clean energy covering 90% of global demand by 2050 and carbon capture offsetting remaining fossil fuel use.
According to the report, nuclear energy will be crucial for achieving a clean energy transition
Nuclear energy growth according to all scenarios
According to the report, nuclear energy is - along with solar photovoltaic, wind, electric vehicles, heat pumps, hydrogen and carbon capture- one of the seven key technologies for an affordable and safe transition, which would amount to 75% of the reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050.
Installed nuclear power, driven by policy revisions in various countries, is expected to grow across all scenarios, reaching a new record in 2025 over the record reached in 2021. China leads this global expansion, accounting for between 40% and 50% of nuclear capacity additions by 2035. In the STEPS scenario, nuclear power capacity would increase to 647 GWe by 2050, while in the APS and NZE scenarios, it is expected to reach 874 GWe and 1017 GWe, respectively.
In the three scenarios, the percentage of nuclear energy in global electric production will stay close to 10%.
Nuclear energy capacity will grow across all scenarios
Increase in political support
Support for nuclear energy has increased in recent years. In December 2023, over 20 countries committed to tripling global nuclear capacity by 2050. Key initiatives in Europe include extending the operative life of reactors in Belgium, lifting the ban on new nuclear plants in Switzerland, and constructing new facilities in Sweden and Poland.
Long-term predictions
According to the report, nuclear energy will be crucial for achieving a clean energy transition. In the APS scenario, nuclear capacity would double, and in the NZE scenario, it would exceed 1000 GWe. The World Nuclear Association estimates that 1200 GWe will be needed to reach net-zero targets in a cost-effective and equitable manner, a goal supported by the Net Zero Nuclear initiative and global financial institutions during COP28.
Source: World Nuclear News
